Sunday, March 11, 2012

So What Is 2012 All About (and How Does It Compare To 2011)?

A quick analysis of event titles and descriptions reveals key topics discussed at this week's SXSWi festival in Austin, Texas. A look back at the same analysis last year shows just what has changed.

Again this year, the hot topic of the festival is "SOCIAL MEDIA". But notice how much more relevant "DATA" as become in 2012. As the development of "Big Data" and other topics continues, I would expect the relevance of data at SXSW to grow as well.

        2012
 
        2011


Wednesday, March 7, 2012

It's SXSW Week!

SXSW 2012 is just days away. I'm heading to Austin tomorrow morning and I'm very excited about all that this year's festival has in store. A quick perusal of the session guide reveals one thing: the number of sessions devoted to the topic of data (especially data visualization) has grown significantly.

Some of you may remember that my main complaint from SXSW 2011 was that the amount of time and attention devoted to data...well...sucked. For anyone interested in my argument, I have linked a small presentation I made last year upon my return. It was largely tongue-in-cheek (I had a GREAT time at SXSW 2011 and all the presenters I saw were top notch), but I was concerned about the treatment -- or lack thereof -- that data received. It seems that data may just claim a much more prominent role in this year's festival.

See you in Austin!



[CLICK HERE TO OPEN DOCUMENT IN NEW WINDOW]


Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Turns Out Social Media Has Some Predictive Value

We've recovered from our Oscar party to find that we did pretty well in predicting this year's winners. Or, I should say, the social media data we analyzed did a pretty good job of predicting this year's winners.

We nailed three of the five categories we projected: Best Picture (The Artist), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) and Best Actress (Meryl Streep). On the other two categories – Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor – the data pointed us to a projected winner, but also told us to choose a "potential winner" as the results we're somewhat mixed. In each case, our "Potential winners" took home trophies. Our Best Supporting Actor “potential winner” Christopher Plummer won for his part in The Next (Jonah Hill was our “projected winner”) and Best Actor “potential winner” Jean Dujardin was recognized for his role in The Artist (Clooney, the eternal Oscar bridesmaid, was our “projected winner”).

To briefly recap, we analyzed social media conversations around the Oscar hopefuls and landed on three metrics we thought might help predict which would win. Those metrics were total social media buzz, total influencer buzz, and a sentiment metric that tracked what percent of social media mentions were positive (compared to the recent that we're negative).

While total buzz and influencer buzz were certainly important, positive social media seemed to be the best indicator of success. In three of the categories, the winner was the person or film that garnered the highest percentage of positive social media buzz from the time the nominees were announced. The two exceptions both came among the women. Meryl Streep won Best Actress where the most likeable entry was Michelle Williams, and Octavia Spencer won Best Supporting Actress even though Jessica Chastain held an advantage in the positive sentiment metric. But in both cases, the amount of positive buzz for Mss. Williams and Chastain were relatively low. Seems while they were certainly liked, they were not liked by enough people.

One other thing we learned was that when we analyzed the full year’s worth of social media buzz, the results were dramatically different. It was also not nearly as accurate at reflecting winners as the buzz from the few weeks leading up to the Academy Awards show. Seems recency of opinion has much influence on a voting event. And people are fickle.

The implications of this fun little exercise for brands are obvious. Having people like you and talk well of you is important. In fact, it seems to be more important than just being in the conversation. That would imply that the adage of “It’s better to be known a lot and disliked than to not be known just a little” for a brand may be misleading. It appears that being held in the public’s good favor means that people like you. And they like you now not just then, as our exploration of recency indicates.

Turning the goodwill of positive public opinion into success means that people are talking to others about you – all of our projected and potential winners were near the top of the buzz categories (an unfortunate learning for Williams and Chastain). But if you’re a brand today, whether you’re trying to win an Oscar or just more customers, getting people to like you appears to be a very important part of the puzzle.


Wednesday, February 22, 2012

And The Oscar Goes To... [UPDATE]

So we noticed an interesting thing when looking through the social media buzz generated by this year's Oscars. It's made us re-think the winners we projected in my post yesterday.

When we first looked at the social media data, we made sure to analyze a full year's worth of conversations. The actors and pictures that took the biggest share of total buzz, the most buzz from the 'In Crowd', and the most positive buzz in that original analysis are noted in that post below.

But when we looked only at the buzz generated since the nominations were announced just a few weeks ago, the story changes dramatically. By the three metrics we've chosen to follow, there is MUCH more consensus around who the most likely winners will be.

Here are the results of that new look at the data. As with you, we will be watching this Sunday to see if Oscar buzz from the entire year or from the weeks leading up to the event is a better predictor of success on awards night.














Tuesday, February 21, 2012

And The Oscar Goes To...

It's Academy Awards weeks and every year at this time a seemingly unanswerable question emerges:  Will the winners be those who receive the most public attention, those who are endorsed by the 'In Crowd', or those who simply earn the most positive reviews?

I've made a habit of watching the Oscars the last several years and will be glued to my television this Sunday while the event unfolds. Watching the Academy Awards is always a lot of fun, but I have never been too successful at predicting the winners. When the envelopes are opened I find myself in stunned disbelief more often than not. Seriously...'The Hurt Locker' was the Best Picture of 2010? Two years later and I'm still unable to explain that one.

In an attempt to ease my troubled mind, we here at Draftfcb's Customer Intelligence team have set out to see if we could find a leading indicator of this year's Oscar winners using social media data and some good old fashioned data analysis.

We have analyzed the social media buzz generated by the Oscars over the past year and have found three metrics that may point to winners:  total impressions (i.e., public attention); influencer impressions (i.e., attention from the 'In Crowd'); and positive vs. negative sentiment (i.e., positive reviews).

For the top five Oscar categories -- Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Leading Actress, Best Leading Actor, and Best Picture -- we have projected winners based on the top performers for each metric. Our projected results are below and we will be back next week to see which of these metrics turned out to be the most accurate indicator of success.

Enjoy your Oscar parties and we will see you next week.








Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Whatchu Talkin' 'Bout, GOP?

I can't say which way the GOP primary will turn out but do know a bit about what the candidates are saying, thanks to Jake Carter-Lovejoy, Almond Loh and Jill Solarczyk.

Jake, Almond, and Jill -- all here at Draftfcb's Customer Intelligence team -- combined to produce this great piece of analysis that investigates the topics discussed during the GOP debates, who said what, and how frequently.

The result is a very interesting insight into the attention given by each candidate to the various issues of today and which they feel most passionately about.

Right-click and open the image in a new tab to see a larger version.

Analysis by Jake Carter-Lovejoy, graphics by Almond Loh & Jill Solarczyk


Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Why Do People Behave The Way They Do?

After a brief (okay...not that brief) hiatus from the blog, we are back again. I hope everyone enjoyed their holidays and that 2012 has started off in the right direction.

I've been reflecting a lot on why people do the things they do. The things we are expected to do, like pay our rent or drive on the correct side of the road. The things that take an amazing amount of courage, like defending those being exploited or showing kindness to people who have wronged us. The crazy things we do, like bungee jumping or falling in love.

I’ve made a career off the pursuit of answers to these and other such questions. A pursuit often motivated, admittedly, by the desire to unravel these mysteries for the express purpose of influencing people to buy more of my client's fast food, choose their banking services, recommend their particular brand of mobile phones to family and friends. But there is also a more genuine motivation behind my fascination with this topic:  with so much going on in the world - from the rise of international terrorism, to America's first black president, to the global financial crisis, to citizen-led protests resulting in the removal of fascist government leaders - this is an extraordinarily interesting time to be alive. A time that is as perplexing as it is exhilarating. Gaining a better understanding of why people behave the way they do a small way of converting some of that bewilderment to delight.

Many great thinkers have tussled with this same pursuit. And scanning the academic and scientific body of work devoted to the question makes two things plain. First, there are as many answers to the question as there are people willing to take on the challenge of answering it. Second, rarely are the offered explanations uncluttered enough to be accessible to the non-academic.

But there is a single framework that can be applied that is elegant in its simplicity and yet full of strength, merit, and flexibility. It's a logical approach that may not precisely explain all the reasons behind human behavior, but does an exceptional job of teasing apart the component parts that go into a person's decision to act (or their choice not to act). By using this framework, someone with a basic degree of instinct can draw important conclusions about why their best friend ditched them to see a movie with the girl from the third floor. Or why their parents choose the family car they drove. Or why Neda Agha-Soltan risked her life to demand change in the way her country was run.


At its root are three elements that have anchored our American legal system for more than 200 years: Motive, Means, and Opportunity. In this sense, "motive" is defined as the reason a person gives to account for behavior. "Means" are the physical, mental resources required for action. And "opportunity" is that moment of truth when someone is faced with the decision to act or not. The existence of these three elements is crucial for any behavior. No behavior is possible without them. You are no more likely to purchase a box of dishwasher detergent from the convenience store down the way if you are at home on your sofa (lack of opportunity), than if you are flat broke (lack of means) or if you don't have an automatic dishwasher at dishes to clean in the first place (lack of motivation). Such behavior will only happen if you're standing in the convenience stores dishwasher detergent aisle with money in your pocket and a dishwasher full of dirty dishes (or, some strange affinity for dishwasher detergent). Similarly, you will only find yourself getting off your sofa to the convenience store down the way for dishwasher detergent if you have dishes to clean, money in your pocket, and you are able to weigh the decision to get up or remain lounged.

Barriers certainly can stand in the way of these elements, complicating our behavior.  A cold, rainy night may dampen ones motivation to make a trip to the store. Having only a jarful of coins as the sole means of payment may complicate the transaction to the point that one decides it makes more sense to wait until payday Friday to purchase detergent. Falling asleep on the sofa effectively rules out the opportunity one has to rise and begin the journey to the detergent aisle in the convenience store. What these barriers do is eliminate for us one or more legs of our decision, making it impossible for us to willfully undertake the behaviors they rule.

Yet even in an environment free of barriers, the existence of these elements only puts us in a position to adopt a behavior. Something more is needed. Something to compel us to action or inaction. Something to trigger an emotional response that compels us into action or inaction. That something is what I call simply "The Spark".


The Spark is the emotional event that activates a behavior and it takes many forms:

Last week, more than 2,000 people gathered at the Apple Store in Beijing the night before the planned release of the first iPhone 4S in China. But when security officials believed the crowds had grown out of control, the planned release was scrapped. As could be expected the crowds did not take kindly to the decision, the store was egged, and police were required to dispel the crowds. The disappointment triggered by the (poor) Apple employee who had to break the news to the waiting customers was what I term a “Real Spark” that led to the crowds’ behavior. It was a clear, authentic event that led directly to an emotional response.

A Few weeks ago in Philadelphia, three men who believed Kevin Kless was yelling and making gestures at them beat Kless to death. It turns out Kless was only trying to hail a cab. The men’s misinterpretation of Kless’s shouts and gestures that triggered their emotional reaction is what I call a “Misread Spark”.

In August, Opelika police launched ‘Operation: Iron Snare’ to lure suspects wanted for refusing to pay child support to police custody with the ruse that they had won Alabama-Auburn tickets. The sting involved much fanfare, as the suspects were showered with attention by local news teams and cheering fans when they showed up at the ticket collection location, only to be told after identifying themselves they were being placed under arrest. The enthusiasm the suspects felt over “winning” tickets – enthusiasm which compelled them to drive to an unknown location to claim their winnings – is the result of a “Fabricated Spark”.

The final type of spark is the most complicated but, perhaps, could be the most frequent spark one will encounter. I term it the "Usurped Spark" and its use is frequently the result of a group of people or an organization operating under a strong personal agenda. When the Usurped Spark is applied, an emotion-triggering event is seen on the surface as the most likely reason behind people's behavior. But a deeper analysis reveals that other, more motivating forces are at work. The obvious "spark" simply provides the opportunity for the group to act upon its true trigger. 

There are few uncontroversial examples of Usurped Sparks as, by definition, this spark implies that the people it compels to action are perhaps disingenuous and at least opportunistic. But a good example of this kind of event that is backed by an accumulating amount of evidence happened during this summer's London Riots. Mark Duggan's shooting by London police was largely viewed as the spark that touched off the unrest which began in Tottenham and quickly spread to much of England. But while surely everyone who partook in the riots and looting knew of Duggan's demise, few could honestly say they were burning buildings, absconding with stolen sneakers, or squaring off with police because of that event. Rather, the shooting and the resultant unrest gave rioters the opportunity to unload frustrations with the London police, the UK government, and their opportunity to make a living that had been building for years. In this way, the Mark Duggan shooting touched off an emotional response that had been swirling below a thin surface for some time.


I’ve found this approach to be very helpful when analyzing behaviors. Hopefully you can use it for practical purposes as well.